Short-term serial circulating tumor DNA assessment predicts therapeutic efficacy for patients with advanced pancreatic cancer

Purpose: We investigated the potential clinical utility of short-term serial KRAS-mutated circulating cell-free tumor DNA (ctDNA) assessment for predicting therapeutic response in patients undergoing first-line chemotherapy for advanced pancreatic cancer.

Methods: We collected 144 blood samples from 18 patients with locally advanced or metastatic cancer that were undergoing initial first-line chemotherapy of gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel (GEM plus nab-PTX). Analysis of KRAS-mutated ctDNA was quantified by digital droplet polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) as mutant allele frequency (MAF). This study investigated pretreatment KRAS-mutated ctDNA status and ctDNA kinetics every few days (days 1, 3, 5 and 7) after initiation of chemotherapy and their potential as predictive indicators.

Results: Of the 18 enrolled patients, an increase in KRAS-mutated ctDNA MAF values from day 0-7 after initiation of chemotherapy was significantly associated with disease progression (P < 0.001). Meanwhile, positive pretreatment ctDNA status (MAF ≥ 0.02%) (P = 0.585) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) values above the median (P = 0.266) were not associated with disease progression. In univariate analysis, this short-term increase in ctDNA MAF values (day 0-7) was found to be associated with significantly shorter progression free survival (PFS) (hazard ration [HR], 24.234; range, (2.761-212.686); P = 0.0002).

Conclusion: This short-term ctDNA kinetics assessment may provide predictive information to reflect real-time therapeutic response and lead to effective refinement of regimen in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer undergoing systemic chemotherapy.