Trends in atrial fibrillation-related mortality in Europe, 2008-2019

Aims: Update data regarding the atrial fibrillation (AF)-related mortality trend in Europe remain scant. We assess the age- and sex-specific trends in AF-related mortality in the European states between the years 2008 and 2019.

Methods and results: Data on cause-specific deaths and population numbers by sex for European countries were retrieved through the publicly available World Health Organization mortality dataset for the years 2008-2019. Atrial fibrillation-related deaths were ascertained when the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision code I48 was listed as the underlying cause of death in the medical death certificate. To calculate annual trends, we assessed the average annual % change (AAPC) with relative 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Joinpoint regression. During the study period, 773 750 AF-related deaths (202 552 males and 571 198 females) occurred in Europe. The age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) linearly increased from 12.3 (95% CI: 11.2-12.9) per 100 000 population in 2008 to 15.3 (95% CI: 14.7-15.7) per 100 000 population in 2019 [AAPC: +2.0% (95% CI: 1.6-3.5), P < 0.001] with a more pronounced increase among men [AAPC: +2.7% (95% CI: 1.9-3.5), P < 0.001] compared with women [AAPC: +1.7% (95% CI: 1.1-2.3), P < 0.001] (P for parallelism 0.01). Higher AAMR increases were observed in some Eastern European countries such as Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, while the lower increases were mainly clustered in Central Europe.

Conclusion: Over the last decade, the age-adjusted AF-related mortality has increased in Europe, especially among males. Disparities still exist between Western and Eastern European countries.