A Novel Tool for Predicting an Abnormal Echocardiogram in Patients with Pulmonary Embolism: The PEACE Score

Background: Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) is an essential tool for risk-stratifying patients with pulmonary embolism (PE), but its availability is limited, often requiring hospitalization. Minimal research exists evaluating clinical and laboratory criteria to predict lack of abnormal TTE findings.

Objective: We aimed to identify predictors associated with abnormal TTE results in patients with PE to potentially identify those safe for early discharge.

Methods: In this retrospective study, we analyzed an existing database of patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) at two academic emergency departments, including adult patients with confirmed PE who underwent TTE. The primary goal was to develop and validate a score predicting abnormal TTE, defined as presence of one of the following: right ventricle (RV) dilatation or hypokinesis, septal flattening, right heart thrombus in transit, or ejection fraction < 50%. Variables were demographic characteristics, symptoms, computed tomography (CT) RV strain, troponin T, and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP). Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify variables independently associated with abnormal TTE. Model discrimination was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve. A clinical prediction rule was developed.

Results: 530 of 2235 patients were included; 56% (297 of 530) had an abnormal TTE. The following six variables were independently associated with abnormal TTE: dyspnea, dizziness, troponin T ≥ 0.1 ng/mL, NTproBNP > 900 pg/mL, CT RV strain, and nonsubsegmental PE. A clinical prediction rule using these six criteria yielded scores between 0 and 7, performing well with AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.79-0.80). A score of 1 was 99.7% sensitive in identifying no abnormality. A score ≥ 5 was 98% specific for an abnormality.

Conclusions: The PEACE (Pulmonary Embolism and Abnormal Cardiac Echocardiogram) criteria, composed of six variables, is highly effective in predicting abnormal TTE in patients with PE, potentially identifying who is safe for early discharge from the hospital.