Purpose: Radium-223 improves overall survival (OS) and reduces skeletal events in patients with bone metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), but relevant biomarkers are lacking. We evaluated automated bone scan index (aBSI) and circulating tumor cell (CTC) analyses as potential biomarkers of prognosis and activity.
Patients and methods: Patients with bone metastatic CRPC were enrolled on a prospective single-arm study of standard radium-223. 99mTc-MDP bone scan images at baseline, 2 months, and 6 months were quantitated using aBSI. CTCs at baseline, 1 month, and 2 months were enumerated and assessed for RNA expression of prostate cancer-specific genes using microfluidic enrichment followed by droplet digital polymerase chain reaction.
Results: The median OS was 21.3 months in 22 patients. Lower baseline aBSI and minimal change in aBSI (<+0.7) from baseline to 2 months were each associated with better OS (P = .00341 and P = .0139, respectively). The higher baseline CTC count of ≥5 CTC/7.5 mL was associated with worse OS (median, 10.1 v 32.9 months; P = .00568). CTCs declined at 2 months in four of 15 patients with detectable baseline CTCs. Among individual genes in CTCs, baseline expression of the splice variant AR-V7 was significantly associated with worse OS (hazard ratio, 5.20 [95% CI, 1.657 to 16.31]; P = .00195). Baseline detectable AR-V7, higher aBSI, and CTC count ≥5 CTC/7.5 mL continued to have a significant independent negative impact on OS after controlling for prostate-specific antigen or alkaline phosphatase.
Conclusion: Quantitative bone scan assessment with aBSI and CTC analyses are prognostic markers in patients treated with radium-223. AR-V7 expression in CTCs is a particularly promising prognostic biomarker and warrants validation in larger cohorts.