Advanced HIV disease in East Africa and Nigeria, in The African Cohort Study

Background: Earlier antiretroviral therapy (ART) may decrease progression to advanced HIV disease (AHD) with CD4 count of <200 cells per cubic millimeter or clinical sequelae. We assessed factors associated with AHD among people living with HIV before and during the "test and treat" era.

Setting: The African Cohort Study prospectively enrolls adults with and without HIV from 12 clinics in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Nigeria.

Methods: Enrollment evaluations included clinical history, physical examination, and laboratory testing. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for factors associated with CD4 count of <200 cells per cubic millimeter at study visits.

Results: From 2013 to 2021, 3059 people living with HIV with available CD4 at enrollment were included; median age was 38 years [interquartile range: 30-46 years], and 41.3% were men. From 2013 to 2021, the prevalence of CD4 count of <200 cells per cubic millimeter decreased from 10.5% to 3.1%, whereas the percentage on ART increased from 76.6% to 100% ( P <0.001). Factors associated with higher odds of CD4 count of <200 cells per cubic millimeter were male sex (adjusted odds ratio 1.56 [confidence interval: 1.29 to 1.89]), being 30-39 years (1.42 [1.11-1.82]) or older (compared with <30), have World Health Organization stage 2 disease (1.91 [1.48-2.49]) or higher (compared with stage 1), and HIV diagnosis eras 2013-2015 (2.19 [1.42-3.37]) or later (compared with <2006). Compared with ART-naive, unsuppressed participants, being viral load suppressed on ART, regardless of ART duration, was associated with lower odds of CD4 count of <200 cells per cubic millimeter (<6 months on ART: 0.45 [0.34-0.58]).

Conclusion: With ART scale-up, AHD has declined. Efforts targeting timely initiation of suppressive ART may further reduce AHD risk.