Accuracy of the tuberculosis molecular bacterial load assay to diagnose and monitor response to anti-tuberculosis therapy: a longitudinal comparative study with standard-of-care smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra, and culture in Uganda

Background: In 2018, the tuberculosis molecular bacterial load assay (TB-MBLA), a ribosomal RNA-based test, was acknowledged by WHO as a molecular assay that could replace smear microscopy and culture for monitoring tuberculosis treatment response. In this study, we evaluated the accuracy of TB-MBLA for diagnosis and monitoring of treatment response in comparison with standard-of-care tests.

Methods: For this longitudinal prospective study, patients aged 18 years or older with presumptive tuberculosis (coughing for at least 2 weeks, night sweats, and weight loss) were enrolled at China-Uganda Friendship Hospital Naguru (Kampala, Uganda). Participants were evaluated for tuberculosis by TB-MBLA in comparison with Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert-Ultra) and smear microscopy, with Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) culture as a reference test. Participants who were positive on Xpert-Ultra were enrolled on a standard 6-month anti-tuberculosis regimen, and monitored for treatment response at weeks 2, 8, 17, and 26 after initiation of treatment and then 3 months after treatment.

Findings: Between Nov 15, 2019, and June 15, 2022, 210 participants (median age 35 years [IQR 27-44]) were enrolled. 135 (64%) participants were male and 72 (34%) were HIV positive. The pretreatment diagnostic sensitivities of TB-MBLA and Xpert-Ultra were similar (both 99% [95% CI 95-100]) but the specificity was higher for TB-MBLA (90% [83-96]) than for Xpert-Ultra (78% [68-86]). Ten participants were Xpert-Ultra trace positive, eight (80%) of whom were negative by TB-MBLA and MGIT culture. Smear microscopy had lower diagnostic sensitivity (75% [65-83]) but higher specificity (98% [93-100]) than TB-MBLA and Xpert-Ultra. Among participants who were smear microscopy negative, the sensitivity of TB-MBLA was 96% (95 CI 80-100) and was 100% (95% CI 86-100) in those who were HIV positive. 129 (61%) participants were identified as tuberculosis positive by Xpert-Ultra and these individuals were enrolled in the treatment group and monitored for treatment response. According to TB-MBLA, 19 of these patients cleared bacillary load to zero by week 2 of treatment and remained negative throughout the 6-month treatment follow-up. Positivity for tuberculosis decreased with treatment as measured by all tests, but the rate was slower with Xpert-Ultra. Consequently, 31 (33%) of 95 participants were still Xpert-Ultra positive at the end of treatment but were clinically well and negative on TB-MBLA and culture at 6 months of treatment. Two patients were still Xpert-Ultra positive with a further 3 months of post-treatment follow-up. The rate of conversion to negative of the DNA-based Xpert-Ultra was 3·3-times slower than that of the rRNA-based TB-MBLA. Consequently for the same patient, it would take 13 weeks and 52 weeks to reach complete tuberculosis negativity by TB-MBLA and Xpert-Ultra, respectively. Participants who were positive on smear microscopy at 8 weeks, who received an extra month of intensive treatment, had a similar TB-MBLA-measured bacillary load at 8 weeks to those who were smear microscopy negative.

Interpretation: TB-MBLA has a similar performance to Xpert-Ultra for pretreatment diagnosis of tuberculosis, but is more accurate at detecting and characterising the response to treatment than Xpert-Ultra and standard-of-care smear microscopy.

Funding: European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, Makerere University Research and Innovation Fund, US National Institutes of Health.