Intersectional inequities and longitudinal prevalence estimates of opioid use disorder in Massachusetts 2014-2020: a multi-sample capture-recapture analysis

Background: As overdoses continue to increase worldwide, accurate estimates are needed to understand the size of the population at risk and address health disparities. Capture-recapture methods may be used in place of direct estimation at nearly any geographic level (e.g., city, state, country) to estimate the size of the population with opioid use disorder (OUD). We performed a multi-sample capture-recapture analysis with persons aged 18-64 years to estimate the prevalence of OUD in Massachusetts from 2014 to 2020, stratified by sex and race/ethnicity.

Methods: We used seven statewide administrative data sources linked at the individual level. We developed log-linear models to estimate the unknown OUD-affected population. Uncertainty was characterized using 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) on the total counts and prevalence estimates.

Findings: The estimated OUD prevalence increased from 5.47% (95% CI = 4.89%, 5.98%) in 2014 to 5.79% (95% CI = 5.34%, 6.19%) in 2020. Prevalence among Hispanic females doubled (2.46% in 2014 to 4.23% in 2020) and prevalence rose to nearly 10% among Black non-Hispanic males and Hispanic males from 2014 through 2019. Estimates for Black non-Hispanic females more than doubled from 2014 through 2019 (3.39% to 7.09%), and then decreased to 5.69% in 2020.

Interpretation: This study is the first to provide OUD prevalence trend estimates by binary sex and race/ethnicity at a state level using capture-recapture methods. Using these methods as the international overdose crisis worsens can allow jurisdictions to appropriately allocate resources and targeted interventions to marginalised populations.

Funding: NIDA.