Cerebral Palsy and Motor Impairment After Extreme Prematurity: Prediction of Diagnoses at Ages 2 and 10 Years

Objective: To identify perinatal factors in children born extremely preterm (EP) that were associated with motor impairment (MI) at 2 and 10 years of age and develop a predictive algorithm to estimate the risk of MI during childhood.

Study design: Participants of the Extremely Low Gestational Age Newborns Study (ELGANS) were classified as: no MI, MI only at 2 years, MI only at 10 years, and MI at both 2 and 10 years, based on a standardized neurological examination at 2 and the Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) at 10 years of age. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression was used to develop the final predictive model.

Results: Of the 849 study participants, 64 (7.5%) had a diagnosis of MI at both 2 and 10 years and 63 (7.4%) had a diagnosis of MI at 1 visit but not the other. Of 22 total risk factors queried, 4 variables most reliably and accurately predicted MI: gestational age, weight z-score growth trajectory during neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) stay, ventriculomegaly, and cerebral echolucency on head ultrasound. By selecting probability thresholds of 3.5% and 7.0% at ages 2 and 10, respectively, likelihood of developing MI can be predicted with a sensitivity and specificity of 71.2%/72.1% at age 2 and 70.7%/70.7% at age 10.

Conclusion: In our cohort, the diagnosis of MI at 2 years did not always predict a diagnosis of MI at 10 years. Specific risk factors are predictive of MI and can estimate an individual infant's risk at NICU discharge of MI at age 10 years.