The influence of age, period, and cohort factors on the incidence of kidney cancer in Spain 1990-2019: Evidence from the global burden of disease study

Objective: This study aimed to assess the influence of age, period, and cohort (A-P-C) factors on kidney cancer (KC) incidence trends in Spain from 1990 to 2019.

Methods: Employing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we employed joinpoint analysis to determine long-term patterns and A-P-C modelling to quantify net drift, local drift, longitudinal age curves, and rate ratios (RRs) of period and cohort effects.

Results: Over the period 1990-2019, an estimated 142,811 cases of KC were diagnosed in Spain. A consistent upward trend in KC incidence was observed for both men and women, with the male-to-female ratio remaining stable at 2.6. Joinpoint analysis identified three distinct periods for men: An initial period (1990-1995) characterised by a significant increase in rates, a subsequent period (1995-2016) characterised by a slowdown in the rate of increase, and a final period (2016-2019) in which rates have plateaued. In women, 2 time periods were observed: an initial period (1990-2007) in which rates increased significantly, followed by a period of stabilization (2007-2019). Men born in the early-mid 20th century had a rising KC risk, peaking in the 1960s. Women's risk rose steadily, peaking in the late 1990s.

Conclusion: A-P-C analysis reveals steady KC incidence increase in both genders over three decades. This highlights the need for targeted public health policies and effective prevention strategies.