Background: Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) has been shown to be associated with adverse clinical outcomes in patients after an acute coronary syndrome when measured soon after an event. Although dynamic in the acute phase after myocardial injury, GDF-15 has been shown to remain stable during convalescence. In this study, we aimed to assess the value of GDF-15 as a long-term prognostic marker for clinical outcomes when measured in the convalescent phase following an acute coronary syndrome.
Methods: GDF-15 concentrations were measured in 1945 patients who were recruited between 2002 and 2009 to the Coronary Disease Cohort Study. For this analysis, follow-up was curtailed at 10 years and association of GDF-15 with all-cause death, cardiovascular death, recurrent myocardial infarction, and heart failure hospitalizations were assessed with multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis.
Results: After 10 years of follow-up, there were 648 deaths (348 from cardiovascular causes), 500 admissions for myocardial infarction, and 436 for heart failure. Four-month convalescent GDF-15 demonstrated a robust independent association with all endpoints, which remained after adjustment for Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score and other convalescent biomarkers. When compared to the lowest quartile of GDF-15 concentrations, those in the highest quartile had a 3-fold increased risk of all-cause death.
Conclusions: Convalescent plasma GDF-15 is a strong and independent predictor of 10-year all-cause death, cardiovascular death, recurrent myocardial infarction, and heart failure admission following an acute coronary syndrome.
Australian new zealand clinical trials registry trial id: ACTRN12605000431628.
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