A novel nomogram model based on Ki-67 characteristic expression to predict prognosis in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Tianyi Wang; Lili Xue; Zhixin Li; Zhicong Hong; Niting Hu; Yi Li; Bing Yan

doi:10.3389/fonc.2024.1376498

A novel nomogram model based on Ki-67 characteristic expression to predict prognosis in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Front Oncol. 2024 Apr 8:14:1376498. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2024.1376498. eCollection 2024.

Authors

Tianyi Wang¹, Lili Xue², Zhixin Li¹, Zhicong Hong³, Niting Hu³, Yi Li¹, Bing Yan¹

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Oral Diseases & National Center for Stomatology & National Clinical Research Center for Oral Diseases & Department of Head and Neck Oncology Surgery, West China Hospital of Stomatology, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
² Department of Stomatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China.
³ Department of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China.

Abstract

Objectives: This study aimed to examine Ki-67's correlation with clinicopathological characteristics of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), evaluate its prognostic significance, and develop a Ki-67 integrated prognostic model.

Methods: The retrospective study included 764 HNSCC patients hospitalized from 2012 to 2022. Data were sourced from medical records and immunohistochemical analysis of surgical specimens.

Results: Ki-67 expression was significantly associated with sex, pathological grade, clinical stage, and metastasis, but not with age or recurrence. Higher Ki-67 levels were linked to poorer prognosis, as indicated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Utilizing a Cox proportional hazards model, four prognostic factors were identified: age, recurrence, metastasis, and Ki-67 expression. These factors were used to construct a prognostic model and a nomogram. The model's predictive accuracy was confirmed by a high concordance index and a reliable calibration curve.

Conclusion: Ki-67 expression in HNSCC patients correlates with several clinicopathological features and serves as a negative prognostic marker. A prognostic model incorporating Ki-67 was successfully developed, offering a new tool for patient prognosis assessment in HNSCC.

Keywords: Ki-67; head and neck squamous cell carcinoma; nomogram; prognosis; prognostic prediction model; survival.

Grants and funding

The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province, China (Grant No. 2021J011361).