Utilizing a comprehensive machine learning approach to identify patients at high risk for extended length of stay following spinal deformity surgery in pediatric patients with early onset scoliosis

Purpose: Early onset scoliosis (EOS) patient diversity makes outcome prediction challenging. Machine learning offers an innovative approach to analyze patient data and predict results, including LOS in pediatric spinal deformity surgery.

Methods: Children under 10 with EOS were chosen from the American College of Surgeon's NSQIP database. Extended LOS, defined as over 5 days, was predicted using feature selection and machine learning in Python. The best model, determined by the area under the curve (AUC), was optimized and used to create a risk calculator for prolonged LOS.

Results: The study included 1587 patients, mostly young (average age: 6.94 ± 2.58 years), with 33.1% experiencing prolonged LOS (n = 526). Most patients were female (59.2%, n = 940), with an average BMI of 17.0 ± 8.7. Factors influencing LOS were operative time, age, BMI, ASA class, levels operated on, etiology, nutritional support, pulmonary and neurologic comorbidities. The gradient boosting model performed best with a test accuracy of 0.723, AUC of 0.630, and a Brier score of 0.189, leading to a patient-specific risk calculator for prolonged LOS.

Conclusions: Machine learning algorithms accurately predict extended LOS across a national patient cohort and characterize key preoperative drivers of increased LOS after PSIF in pediatric patients with EOS.