Analysis of risk factors for postoperative recurrence of stage I colorectal cancer: a retrospective analysis of a large population

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. Patients diagnosed with stage I CRC typically do not require postoperative adjuvant treatment. However, postoperative recurrence is present in at least 40% of patients with CRC and often occurs in those with stage I disease. This study aimed to elucidate the current status of recurrence and clinicopathological characteristics in patients with stage I CRC.

Methods: Data of indicated patients were obtained from 18 registries in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER). The multivariable Fine-Gray regression model was used to identify the mortality risk of patients. Disparities in survival were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Logistic regression was employed to identify factors associated with recurrent risk overestimation.

Results: Our study indicated a recurrence rate of 15.04% (1,874/12,452) in stage I CRC cases. Notably, we identified race, age, T stage, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels as independent risk factors for tumor recurrence, substantially impacting prognosis. Furthermore, gender, race (Black), age (>65 years), elevated CEA levels, and refusal or unknown status regarding radiotherapy significantly correlated with an adverse prognosis in patients with stage I CRC.

Conclusions: We identified certain key clinicopathological features of patients with stage I CRC and demonstrated the survival benefits of radiotherapy, offering a new perspective on stage I CRC follow-up and treatment recommendations.