Estimated pulse wave velocity as a predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with hypertension in China: a prospective cohort study

Background: Whether the estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) in Chinese patients with hypertension can serve as an independent predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality remains unknown. Therefore, this study investigated the associations between ePWV and cardiovascular and all-cause mortalities and explored potential effect modifiers influencing these relationships. Finally, we compared the ePWV with the brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) to determine which parameter better predicts mortality.

Methods: The population of this longitudinal cohort study was selected from the China H-type Hypertension Registry Study. The exposure and outcome variables were ePWV and all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities, respectively. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was applied to assess the associations between ePWV and all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities. The performances of ePWV and baPWV in predicting death were compared using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area, net reclassification improvement index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI).

Results: This prospective study enrolled 14,232 patients with hypertension. Following an average follow-up of 48 months, 806 individuals succumbed to all-cause mortality, with 397 cases specifically attributed to cardiovascular diseases. The Cox proportional regression analysis revealed a significant association between a 1 m/s increase in ePWV and a 37% higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.31-1.43) as well as a 52% higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.43-1.62) in the fully adjusted model. The findings for ePWV according to quartile demonstrated hazard ratios for all-cause mortality for Q2 (10.25 < ePWV < 11.32), Q3 (11.32 < ePWV < 12.40), and Q4 (ePWV ≥ 12.40) of 1.50 (HR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.07-2.10), 2.34 (HR: 2.34, 95% CI: 1.73-3.18), and 4.09 (HR: 4.09, 95% CI: 3.05-5.49), respectively, compared with Q1 (ePWV < 10.25). The risk of cardiovascular death also increased in proportion to the rise in ePWV. The results of the area under the ROC curve, NRI, and IDI all indicated that ePWV outperformed baPWV in predicting mortality. The results of the subgroup analysis demonstrated that body mass index (BMI) and hypoglycemic drug use modified the association between ePWV and mortality.

Conclusions: The performance of ePWV in predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities was superior to that of baPWV alone. Patients who were overweight or obese with higher ePWV values exhibited a significantly increased risk of all-cause death. The correlation between elevated ePWV and the risk of cardiovascular death was more pronounced in patients who had not received hypoglycemic drugs.