Personalized Composite Dosimetric Score-Based Machine Learning Model of Severe Radiation-Induced Lymphopenia Among Patients With Esophageal Cancer

Purpose: Radiation-induced lymphopenia (RIL) is common among patients undergoing radiation therapy (RT)' Severe RIL has been linked to adverse outcomes. The severity and risk of RIL can be predicted from baseline clinical characteristics and dosimetric parameters. However, dosimetric parameters, e.g. dose-volume (DV) indices, are highly correlated with one another and are only weakly associated with RIL. Here we introduce the novel concept of "composite dosimetric score" (CDS) as the index that condenses the dose distribution in immune tissues of interest to study the dosimetric dependence of RIL. We derived an improved multivariate classification scheme for risk of grade 4 RIL (G4RIL), based on this novel RT dosimetric feature, for patients receiving chemo RT for esophageal cancer.

Methods and materials: DV indices were extracted for 734 patients who received chemo RT for biopsy-proven esophageal cancer. Nonnegative matrix factorization was used to project the DV indices of lung, heart, and spleen into a single CDS; XGBoost was employed to explore significant interactions among predictors; and logistic regression was applied to combine the resultant CDS with baseline clinical factors and interaction terms to facilitate individualized prediction of immunotoxicity. Five-fold cross-validation was applied to evaluate the model performance.

Results: The CDS for selected immune organs at risk (ie, heart, lung, and spleen) (OR 1.791; 95 CI [1.350, 2.377]) was a statistically significant risk determinant for G4RIL. Pearson correlation coefficients for CDS versus G4RIL risk for individual immune organs at risk were greater than any single DV indicx. Personalized prediction of G4RIL based on CDS and 4 clinical risk factors yielded an area under the curve value of 0.78. Interaction between age and CDS revealed that G4RIL risk increased more sharply with increasing CDS for patients aged ≥65 years.

Conclusions: Risk of immunotoxicity for patients undergoing chemo RT for esophageal cancer can be predicted by CDS. The CDS concept can be extended to immunotoxicity in other cancer types and in dose-response models currently based on DV indices. Personalized treatment planning should leverage composite dosimetric scoring methods rather than using individual or subsets of DV indices.