Assessing the predictive validity of Provincial Medical & Dental College Admission Test (MDCAT)

Objective: To assess the predictive validity of Punjab Provincial Medical & Dental College Admission Test (MDCAT).

Methods: A retrospective correlational study was conducted at the Fatima Memorial Hospital College of Medicine & Dentistry in Lahore, Pakistan. Data were analysed from 415 medical students who had completed the MBBS program from 2018-2020. Bivariate and multivariable regression models were used to adjust for confounders such as age, gender, city of origin, and pre-medical performance. A novel performance-trajectory analysis was used to evaluate whether students with different preadmission MDCAT scores had different performance trajectories in medical school.

Results: On simple bivariate analysis, there was a weak but significant (correlational coefficient 0.22-0.33, p<0.001) correlation between MDCAT scores and professional exam scores for all years of medical college. However, multivariable analysis of Matric/Fsc track showed no significant correlation (p > 0.05) between MDCAT and professional exam scores after the first two years. For O/A level students, there was no correlation between MDCAT and professional exam scores for any year of medical college (p>0.05). Trajectory analysis showed that students with exceptionally high MDCAT scores had a superior performance trajectory compared to those with the lowest quartile of MDCAT scores while students with average MDCAT scores had overlapping performance trajectories.

Conclusion: For students from the Matric/FSc track only, there is a weak but significant correlation between MDCAT scores and professional exam scores for the first two years. No such correlation exists for O/A level students. Exceptionally high MDCAT scores are predictive of higher achievement in professional exam scores.