A Radiomics-Based Nomogram Using Ultrasound Carotid Plaque Evaluation For Predicting Cerebro-Cardiovascular Events In Asymptomatic Patients

Rationale and objectives: This study aims to assess whether a radiomics-based nomogram correlates with a higher risk of future cerebro-cardiovascular events in patients with asymptomatic carotid plaques. Additionally, it investigates the nomogram's contribution to the revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (rFSRP) for predicting cerebro-cardiovascular risk.

Materials and methods: Predictive models aimed at identifying an increased risk of future cerebro-cardiovascular events were developed and internally validated at one center, then externally validated at two other centers. Survival curves, constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method, were compared through the log-rank test.

Results: This study included a total of 2009 patients (3946 images). The final nomogram was generated using multivariate Cox regression variables, including dyslipidemia, lumen diameter, plaque echogenicity, and ultrasonography (US)-based radiomics risk. The Harrell's concordance index (C-index) for predicting events-free survival (EFS) was 0.708 in the training cohort, 0.574 in the external validation cohort 1, 0.632 in the internal validation cohort, and 0.639 in the external validation cohort 2. The final nomogram showed a significant increase in C-index compared to the clinical, conventional US, and US-based radiomics models (all P < 0.05). Furthermore, the final nomogram-assisted method significantly improved the sensitivity and accuracy of radiologists' visual qualitative score of plaque (both P < 0.001). Among 1058 patients with corresponding 1588 plaque US images classified as low-risk by the rFSRP, 75 (7.1%) patients with corresponding 93 (5.9%) carotid plaque images were appropriately reclassified to the high-risk category by the final nomogram.

Conclusion: The radiomics-based nomogram demonstrated accurate prediction of cerebro-cardiovascular events in patients with asymptomatic carotid plaques. It also improved the sensitivity and accuracy of radiologists' visual qualitative score of carotid plaque and enhanced the risk stratification ability of rFSRP.

Summary: The radiomics-based nomogram allowed accurate prediction of cerebro-cardiovascular events, especially ipsilateral ischemic stroke in patients with asymptomatic carotid atherosclerotic plaques.

Key results: The radiomics-based nomogram allowed accurate prediction of cerebro-cardiovascular events, especially ipsilateral ischemic stroke in patients with asymptomatic carotid atherosclerotic plaques. The radiomics-based nomogram improved the sensitivity and accuracy of radiologists' visual qualitative score of carotid plaque. The radiomics-based nomogram improved the discrimination of high-risk populations from low-risk populations in asymptomatic patients with carotid atherosclerotic plaques and the risk stratification capability of the rFSRP.