Prognostic significance of dynamic changes in liver stiffness measurement in patients with chronic hepatitis B and compensated advanced chronic liver disease

Background and aim: Liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) are promising for monitoring disease progression or regression. We assessed the prognostic significance of dynamic changes in LSM over time on liver-related events (LREs) and death in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD).

Methods: This retrospective study included 1272 patients with CHB and cACLD who underwent at least two measurements, including LSM and fibrosis score based on four factors (FIB-4). ΔLSM was defined as [(follow-up LSM - baseline LSM)/baseline LSM × 100]. We recorded LREs and all-cause mortality during a median follow-up time of 46 months. Hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes were calculated using Cox regression.

Results: Baseline FIB-4, baseline LSM, ΔFIB-4, ΔLSM, and ΔLSM/year were independently and simultaneously associated with LREs (adjusted HR, 1.04, 95% CI, 1.00-1.07; 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01-1.03; 1.06, 95% CI, 1.03-1.09; 1.96, 95% CI, 1.63-2.35, 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01-1.04, respectively). The baseline LSM combined with the ΔLSM achieved the highest Harrell's C (0.751), integrated AUC (0.776), and time-dependent AUC (0.737) for LREs. Using baseline LSM and ΔLSM, we proposed a risk stratification method to improve clinical applications. The risk proposed stratification based on LSM performed well in terms of prognosis: low risk (n = 390; reference), intermediate risk (n = 446; HR = 3.38), high risk (n = 272; HR = 5.64), and extremely high risk (n = 164; HR = 11.11).

Conclusions: Baseline and repeated noninvasive tests measurement allow risk stratification of patients with CHB and cACLD. Combining baseline and dynamic changes in the LSM improves prognostic prediction.