Analysis of risk factors for long-term mortality in patients with stage II and III tuberculous meningitis

Objective: To investigate risk factors associated with long-term mortality in patients with stage II and III tuberculous meningitis (TBM).

Methods: This retrospective analysis examined patients who were first diagnosed with stage II and III TBM at West China Hospital of Sichuan University between January 1, 2018 and October 1, 2019. Patients were followed via telephone and categorized into survival and mortality groups based on 4-year outcomes. Multivariate logistic regression identified independent risk factors for long-term mortality in stage II and III TBM.

Results: In total, 178 patients were included, comprising 108 (60.7%) males and 36 (20.2%) non-survivors. Mean age was 36 ± 17 years. Compared to survivors, non-survivors demonstrated significantly higher age, heart rate, diastolic blood pressure, blood glucose, rates of headache, neurological deficits, cognitive dysfunction, impaired consciousness, hydrocephalus, and basal meningeal inflammation. This group also exhibited significantly lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores, blood potassium, albumin, and cerebrospinal fluid chloride. Multivariate analysis revealed age (OR 1.042; 95% CI 1.015-1.070; P = 0.002), GCS score (OR 0.693; 95% CI 0.589-0.814; P < 0.001), neurological deficits (OR 5.204; 95% CI 2.056-13.174; P < 0.001), and hydrocephalus (OR 2.680; 95% CI 1.081-6.643; P = 0.033) as independent mortality risk factors. The ROC curve area under age was 0.613 (95% CI 0.506-0.720; P = 0.036) and 0.721 (95% CI 0.615-0.826; P < 0.001) under GCS score.

Conclusion: Advanced age, reduced GCS scores, neurological deficits, and hydrocephalus were identified as independent risk factors for mortality in stage II and III TBM patients.