Certain heavy metals have been correlated to an elevated risk of inflammation-related diseases and mortality. Nevertheless, the intricate relationships between metal exposure, inflammation and mortality remain unknown. We included 3741 adults with measurements of ten urinary heavy metals in the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2010, followed up to December 31, 2019. Low-grade systemic inflammation was evaluated by various markers, including C-reactive protein (CRP) and ratios derived from regular blood tests. We assessed associations between heavy metal and all-cause mortality using multivariate COX regressions. Then we assessed the mediation effect of low-grade systemic inflammation on the associations via Sobel Test. To gauge the systemic inflammatory potential of the multi-metal mixture and its correlation with all-cause mortality, a Metal Mixture Inflammatory Index (MMII) was developed using reduced rank regression (RRR) models. The association between MMII and all-cause mortality was explored via multivariate COX regressions. Cadmium, antimony and uranium displayed positive associations with mortality, with hazard ratios (HR) ranging from 1.18 to 1.46 (all P-FDR < 0.05). Mediation analyses revealed that the associations between specific heavy metals (cadmium and antimony) and mortality risk were slightly mediated by the low-grade systemic inflammation markers, with mediation proportions ranging from 3.11 % to 5.38 % (all P < 0.05). MMII, the weighted sum of 9 heavy metals, significantly predicted platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and CRP (β = 0.10 and 1.16, all P < 0.05), was positively associated with mortality risk (HR 1.28, 95 % CI 1.14 to 1.43). Exposure to heavy metals might increase all-cause mortality, partly mediated by low-grade systemic inflammation. MMII, designed to assess the potential systemic inflammatory effects of exposure to multiple heavy metals, was closely related to the all-cause mortality risk. This study introduces MMII as an approach to evaluating co-exposure and its potential health effects comprehensively.
Keywords: Heavy metals; MMII; Mediation; Mortality; Systemic inflammation.
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