Accuracy of Medical Oncology Prognosis for Metastatic Cancer Patients Evaluated for Enrollment Onto an Ongoing Randomized Clinical Trial

Objectives: For patients with metastatic cancer, a key aspect of interdisciplinary care has involved the overall prognosis provided by Medical Oncology. This study represents prospective evaluation of Medical Oncology prognosis accuracy for patients considered for enrollment onto an ongoing randomized controlled trial.

Methods: The Spine Patient Optimal Radiosurgery Treatment for Symptomatic Metastatic Neoplasms (SPORTSMEN) phase 2 randomized clinical trial examines optimal radiation therapy treatment of symptomatic spinal metastases with a primary end point of pain freedom at 3 months post-treatment. A key eligibility criterion for trial enrollment is overall prognosis exceeding 3 months, typically provided by Medical Oncology. During the first year of trial enrollment, Medical Oncology prognosis for patients considered for SPORTSMEN inclusion was prospectively assessed for accuracy.

Results: Twenty-seven patients with documented Medical Oncology prognosis were considered for SPORTSMEN enrollment. The prognosis administered by Medical Oncology exceeded 3 months in 26 patients, and <3 months in 1 patient. The overall accuracy of Medical Oncology prognosis was correct for 15 of 27 patients (56%), significantly worse for inpatients than outpatients ( P =0.0381).

Conclusions: In patients with metastatic spine disease, the estimated prognosis provided by Medical Oncology is often optimistic, as nearly half of patients assigned a prognosis of >3 months failed to reach this threshold before experiencing death or hospice. These findings indicate that a more heuristic approach to assessing patient prognosis may be necessary to avoid unwarranted prognostic optimism, particularly for inpatients. Such an approach could potentially provide a more compassionate and cost-effective management of these patients' remaining lifespan thereby optimizing quality of life.