Causes of death in individuals with lifetime major depression: a comprehensive machine learning analysis from a community-based autopsy center

Background: Depression can be associated with increased mortality and morbidity, but no studies have investigated the specific causes of death based on autopsy reports. Autopsy studies can yield valuable and detailed information on pathological ailments or underreported conditions. This study aimed to compare autopsy-confirmed causes of death (CoD) between individuals diagnosed with major depressive disorder (MDD) and matched controls. We also analyzed subgroups within our MDD sample, including late-life depression and recurrent depression. We further investigated whether machine learning (ML) algorithms could distinguish MDD and each subgroup from controls based on their CoD.

Methods: We conducted a comprehensive analysis of CoD in individuals who died from nontraumatic causes. The diagnosis of lifetime MDD was ascertained based on the DSM-5 criteria using information from a structured interview with a knowledgeable informant. Eleven established ML algorithms were used to differentiate MDD individuals from controls by simultaneously analyzing different disease category groups to account for multiple tests. The McNemar test was further used to compare paired nominal data.

Results: The initial dataset included records of 1,102 individuals, among whom 232 (21.1%) had a lifetime diagnosis of MDD. Each MDD individual was strictly paired with a control non-psychiatric counterpart. In the MDD group, the most common CoD were circulatory (67.2%), respiratory (13.4%), digestive (6.0%), and cancer (5.6%). Despite employing a range of ML models, we could not find distinctive CoD patterns that could reliably distinguish individuals with MDD from individuals in the control group (average accuracy: 50.6%; accuracy range: 39-59%). These findings were consistent even when considering factors within the MDD group, such as late-life or recurrent MDD. When comparing groups with paired nominal tests, no differences were found for circulatory (p=0.450), respiratory (p=0.790), digestive (p=1.000), or cancer (p=0.855) CoD.

Conclusions: Our analysis revealed that autopsy-confirmed CoD exhibited remarkable similarity between individuals with depression and their matched controls, underscoring the existing heterogeneity in the literature. Future research should prioritize more severe manifestations of depression and larger sample sizes, particularly in the context of CoD related to cancer.