A model of long-term population growth with an application to Central West Argentina

PLoS One. 2024 Aug 7;19(8):e0307703. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307703. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

We propose an Ideal Specialization Model to help explain the diversity of population growth trajectories exhibited across archaeological regions over thousands of years. The model provides a general set of expectations useful for guiding empirical research, and we provide a concrete example by conducting a preliminary evaluation of three expectations in Central West Argentina. We use kernel density estimates of archaeological radiocarbon, estimates of paleoclimate, and human bone stable isotopes from archaeological remains to evaluate three expectations drawn from the model's dynamics. Based on our results, we suggest that innovations in the production of food and social organization drove demographic transitions and population expansion in the region. The consistency of population expansion in the region positively associates with changes in diet and, potentially, innovations in settlement and social integration.

MeSH terms

  • Archaeology*
  • Argentina
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Population Dynamics
  • Population Growth*

Grants and funding

This research was supported by the Agencia Nacional de Promoción de la Investigación, el Desarrollo Tecnológico y la Innovación [PICT 2019–04447; PICT 2020-0684, PICT 2021--I-A-00891, and PICT 2022-04-00016], the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, and the Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. We are also thankful for support from the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project, which in turn received support from the Swiss Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.