The Potential of Minimum Wage Increases to Reduce Youth Homicide Disparities: Diminishing Returns for Black Youth

We examine and compare the relationship between minimum wage increases and youth homicide rates in three groups: all youth, White youth only, and Black youth only. Using 2001-2019 mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) for all 50 states and Washington DC, we apply a difference in differences (DD) design to compare the change in youth homicides across states with varying changes in the state-specific minimum wage. With the inclusion of state-specific linear time trends, we find that a $1 increase in minimum wage leads to a significant 4% reduction (RR = 0.96, 95%CI [0.92, 0.99]) in homicides among White youth, but no significant reduction among Black youth (RR = 0.98, 95%CI [0.91, 1.04]). Findings are consistent with research on marginalization-related diminished returns for Black youth. While minimum wage increases are a promising step to reduce youth homicides overall, reducing homicide disparities experienced by Black youth requires additional components. Future research should examine policies with the specific intention to dismantle structural racism.