Prevalence and clinical determinants of rapid eGFR decline among patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes

Background: Diabetic kidney disease is the most common cause of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in the western world. Rapid estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline is an independent predictor of ESKD and death in the general population and in subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D).

Aim: We investigated in a large sample of subjects with newly diagnosed T2D the prevalence and clinical determinants of fast eGFR decline, taking advantage from the dataset of the Associazione Medici Diabetologi (AMD) Annals initiative.

Methods: The eGFR trajectories were evaluated by applying a linear mixed model for repeated measures (LMMRM) and rapid eGFR decline defined as an eGFR decline greater than 5 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year at 3 years.

Results: Among 105,163 (57.7% M) subjects with newly diagnosed T2D, 13,587 (12.9 %) subjects showed a rapid eGFR loss. The independent significant predictors were age, female gender, HbA1c, smoking, high baseline eGFR, albuminuria and retinopathy.

Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that a significant percentage of newly diagnosed T2D subjects have a rapid eGFR decline. Given the association between dynamic changes in eGFR and the risk of ESKD or death, we suggest to include this variable in the definition of CKD.