Background: In 2019, a five-year pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) program started in the Netherlands, in which up to 8,500 men who have sex with men (MSM) can obtain PrEP and 3-monthly consultations with HIV/STI testing.
Setting: We assessed the impact of the PrEP program on transmission of HIV and Neisseria gonorrhea (NG) among MSM in the Netherlands and examined prospective variations of the program after 2024.
Methods: We used an agent-based model to estimate the effect of the PrEP program. For prospective PrEP programs from 2024, we varied the capacity (8,500; 12,000; 16,000 participants) and consultation frequency (3-monthly; 6-monthly; 70% 3-monthly and 30% 6-monthly) for t.
Results: At a capacity of 8,500 participants and 3-monthly consultations, the PrEP program could lead to 3,140 (95%CrI 1,780 - 4,780) and 27,930 (95%CrI 14,560 - 46,280) averted HIV and NG infections; requiring 316,050 (95%CrI 314,120 - 317,580) consultations. At a capacity of 16,000 participants the programs with 3-monthly consultations and 6-monthly consultations could lead to comparable numbers of averted HIV (3,940 (95%CrI 2,420 - 5,460), and 3,900 (2,320 - 5,630) respectively) and NG infections (29,970 (95%CrI 15,490 - 50,350), and 29,960 (95%CrI 13,610 - 50,620) respectively), while requiring substantially different numbers of consultations: 589,330 (95%CrI 586,240 - 591,160) and 272,590 (95%CrI 271,770 - 273,290) respectively.
Conclusion: Continuation of a PrEP program could lead to a substantial reduction in HIV and NG transmission. More infections could be averted if the number of participants is increased. In turn, the consultations frequency could be reduced without reducing the number of averted infections if capacity is increased.
Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.