Objective: To analyze trends in epidemiological risk of leprosy in Goiás state, Brazil, and its health macro-regions, between 2010 and 2021.
Method: This is a time series analysis of the composite leprosy epidemiological risk index in Goiás. We used cases held on the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System for calculating indicators separately and risk, classified as high, medium, low and very low. Trends were analyzed using Prais-Winsten linear regression and risk maps were produced.
Results: Goiás showed high leprosy endemicity (24.8 cases/100,000 inhabitants) and medium epidemiological risk between 2019 and 2021 (0.58). A stationary trend was found (annual percentage change, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, -3.04; 4.16) for risk of leprosy in Goiás as a whole and in its Central-West and Central-Southeast macro-regions.
Conclusion: There is need for actions to reduce the epidemiological risk of leprosy, especially where its trend is stationary, this includes early screening for new cases and health education.
Main results: Leprosy persists in Goiás state, Brazil, in an endemic form, with heterogeneous distribution. There has been a reduction in the number of municipalities with high epidemiological risk of leprosy, but challenges include active transmission and late diagnosis.
Implications for services: Long-term strategies for prevention, early detection, treatment and monitoring of people with leprosy and their contacts are needed.
Perspectives: It is crucial to strengthen health policies targeting leprosy in Goiás state, prioritizing continuing education and training programs for health professionals working in the entire territory.
Objetivo: Evaluar la tendencia de riesgo epidemiológico de lepra en el estado de Goiás y macrorregiones sanitarias de 2010 a 2021.
Método: Análisis de serie temporal del indicador compuesto del índice de riesgo epidemiológico de lepra en Goiás. Se utilizaron los casos del Sistema de Enfermedades de Declaración Obligatoria para calcular indicadores aislados y se clasificó el riesgo en alto, medio, bajo y muy bajo. La tendencia se analizó mediante regresión lineal de Prais-Winsten y se elaboraron mapas de riesgo.
Resultados: Goiás presentó alta endemicidad de lepra (24,8 casos/100 mil habitantes) y riesgo epidemiológico medio en 2019 y 2021 (0,58). Se observó una tendencia estacionaria (variación porcentual anual, 0,50; intervalo de confianza, -3,04; 4,16) del riesgo de lepra en Goiás y en las macrorregiones Centro-Oeste y Centro-Sureste.
Conclusión: Es necesario implementar acciones para reducir el riesgo epidemiológico de lepra, especialmente con una tendencia estacionaria, y esto incluye medidas de rastreo y diagnóstico precoz de nuevos casos y educación sanitaria.