Machine learning approach to investigate pregnancy and childbirth risk factors of sleep problems in early adolescence: Evidence from two cohort studies

Background: This study aimed to predict early adolescent sleep problems using pregnancy and childbirth risk factors through machine learning algorithms, and to evaluate model performance internally and externally.

Methods: Data from the China Jintan Child Cohort study (CJCC; n=848) for model development and the US Healthy Brain and Behavior Study (HBBS; n=454) for external validation were employed. Maternal pregnancy histories, obstetric data, and adolescent sleep problems were collected. Several machine learning techniques were employed, including least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, logistic regression, random forest, naïve bayes, extreme gradient boosting, decision tree, and neural network. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and root mean square of residuals were used to evaluate model performance.

Results: Key predictors for CJCC adolescents' sleep problems include gestational age, birthweight, duration of delivery, and maternal happiness during pregnancy. In HBBS adolescents, the duration of postnatal depressive emotions was the primary perinatal predictor. The prediction models developed in the CJCC had good-to-excellent internal validation performance but poor performance in predicting the sleep problems in HBBS adolescents.

Conclusion: The identification of specific perinatal risk factors associated with adolescent sleep problems can inform targeted interventions during and after pregnancy to mitigate these risks. Health providers should consider integrating these predictive factors into routine pre- and postnatal assessments to identify at-risk populations. The variability in model performance across different cohorts highlights the need for context-specific models and the cautious application of predictive analytics across diverse populations. Future research should focus on refining predictive models to account for such variations, potentially through the incorporation of additional socio-cultural factors and genetic markers. This study emphasizes the importance of personalized and culturally sensitive approaches in the prediction and management of adolescent sleep problems, leveraging advanced computational methods to enhance maternal and child health outcomes.