Prognostic significance of socioeconomic deprivation in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy: A retrospective cohort study

Objectives: Deprivation is a complex, multifaceted concept and not synonymous with poverty. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic influence of the multiple deprivation index on emergency laparotomy (EL) outcome.

Methods: STROCSS statement standards were followed to conduct a retrospective cohort study. Consecutive 1723 adult patients [median age (range): 66 (18-98), 762 M, and 961 F] undergoing EL over eight years (2014-22) at two hospitals [a tertiary teaching center and district general hospital (DGH)] were studied. Deprivation scores and ranks were derived from patients' postcodes using the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation and ranks categorized into quartiles. Primary outcome measure was a 30-day operative mortality (OM).

Results: OM risk was higher in the most deprived quartile (Q1) compared with the least deprived quartile (Q4) (13.2% vs. 7.9% and p = 0.008). Deprivation was an independent predictor of OM on both univariate (unadjusted OR: 1.75, 95% CI 1.17-2.61, and p = 0.006) and multivariable logistic regression analyses (OR: 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, and p = 0.023; adjusted for age ≥80 years, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, need for bowel resection, and peritoneal contamination). Deprivation had poor discriminatory value in predicting OM (AUC: 0.56 and 95% CI 0.54-0.59). Subgroup analysis showed that although the risk of OM was lower in the tertiary center compared with the DGH (7.9% vs. 14.5% and p < 0.001), the predictive significance of deprivation was similar in both hospitals (AUC: 0.54 vs. 0.56 and p = 0.674).

Conclusion: Deprivation is an independent but modest predictor of OM after EL. The potential prognostic value of incorporating deprivation into preoperative risk assessment algorithms deserves further evaluation.