Emergency and non-emergency routes to cancer diagnoses in 2020 and 2021: A Population-based study of 154,863 patients

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted normal pathways to cancer diagnosis, particularly for screening and non-acute symptomatic patients. While reductions in overall cancer diagnoses have been reported elsewhere, any differential effects on emergency presentations, which are associated with poorer outcomes, have not been described.

Material and methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study from 2015 to 2021, based on International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership methods, where emergency route to diagnosis is defined as presenting as an emergency admission in the 30 days prior to cancer incidence date. Acute hospital records and cancer registrations were individually linked. Includes all individuals with a new diagnosis of specific cancers on the national cancer registry.

Results: All cancers included showed reductions in non-emergency diagnoses in 2020, with varying recovery in 2021. The largest reductions in non-emergency diagnoses of about a third were for colorectal and cervical cancers in 2020. Non-emergency diagnoses of prostate cancer remained lower but upper GI higher in 2021. Emergency routes to diagnosis were significantly higher in 2020 for breast, cervical, colorectal and upper GI cancers and were higher in 2021 for breast and cervical cancers. The absolute magnitude of reductions in non-emergency diagnoses was greater than any increases in emergency diagnoses.

Conclusions: In 2020, there were large reductions in numbers of cancers diagnosed through non-emergency pathways in Scotland, while those diagnosed via emergency routes fell only for prostate cancer. Some effects persisted or emerged through 2021. It is likely that opportunities to diagnose cancers in a favourable, elective manner have been lost. Further work is needed to describe outcomes among these patients.