Changes in Genital HPV Prevalence during 12 Years Girls-Only Bivalent HPV Vaccination: Results from a Biennial Repeated Cross-Sectional Study

Background: From 2009 until 2021, bivalent HPV vaccination was offered only to girls in the Netherlands. We aimed to study the impact of girls-only HPV vaccination on genital HPV prevalence among young adults.

Methods and findings: PASSYON is a biennial repeated cross-sectional study (2009-21) among sexual health clinic clients aged 16-24 years old. Questionnaires elicited data on demographics, sexual behaviour and HPV vaccination status. Genital samples were collected and analysed using a PCR-based assay (SPF10-LiPA25). Type-specific prevalence trends of 12 high-risk (hr) genotypes were analysed as the adjusted average annual change (aAAC), estimated using Poisson GEE models. The relation between aAAC and phylogenetic distance to HPV-16/18 was assessed by means of regression and rank correlation analysis. Questionnaires and genital samples were collected from 8,889 females and 3,300 heterosexual males (HM). 4,829 females reported to be unvaccinated (54·3%). Among females (irrespective of vaccination status), prevalences of HPV-16/18/31/33/35/45 decreased significantly over time. Increasing trends were observed for HPV-39/52/56. Among both HM and unvaccinated females HPV-16/18 prevalence significantly declined, as did HPV-31 among HM. In contrast, HPV-52/58 increased significantly among HM and unvaccinated females. The type-specific aAAC correlated well with the phylogenetic distance to HPV-16/18.

Conclusions: During twelve years girls-only bivalent HPV vaccination in the Netherlands, decreasing trends of the vaccine types and cross-protected types were observed among females. Herd protection of vaccine-types was observed for HM and unvaccinated females, and one cross-protected type for HM. Increasing prevalence trends of HPV types with large phylogenetic distance to the vaccine types might indicate type-replacement.