Cost-effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 self-testing at routine gatherings to minimize community-level infections in lower-middle income countries: A mathematical modeling study

PLoS One. 2024 Oct 4;19(10):e0311198. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0311198. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Places of worship serve as a venue for both mass and routine gathering around the world, and therefore are associated with risk of large-scale SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, such routine gatherings also offer an opportunity to distribute self-tests to members of the community to potentially help mitigate transmission and reduce broader community spread of SARS-CoV-2. Over the past four years, self-testing strategies have been an impactful tool for countries' response to the COVID-19 pandemic, especially early on to mitigate the spread when vaccination and treatment options were limited. We used an agent-based mathematical model to estimate the impact of various strategies of symptomatic and asymptomatic self-testing for a fixed percentage of weekly routine gatherings at places of worship on community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil, Georgia, and Zambia. Testing strategies assessed included weekly and bi-weekly self-testing across varying levels of vaccine effectiveness, vaccine coverage, and reproductive numbers to simulate developing stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Self-testing symptomatic people attending routine gatherings can cost-effectively reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within places of worship and the community, resulting in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $69-$303 USD. This trend is especially true in contexts where population level attendance at such gatherings is high, demonstrating that a distribution approach is more impactful when a greater proportion of the population is reached. Asymptomatic self-testing of attendees at 100% of places of worship in a country results in the greatest percent of infections averted and is consistently cost-effective but remains costly. Budgetary needs for asymptomatic testing are expensive and likely unaffordable for lower-middle income countries (520-1550x greater than that of symptomatic testing alone), promoting that strategies to strengthen symptomatic testing should remain a higher priority.

MeSH terms

  • Brazil / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 Testing / economics
  • COVID-19 Testing / methods
  • COVID-19* / diagnosis
  • COVID-19* / economics
  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / prevention & control
  • COVID-19* / transmission
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis*
  • Developing Countries
  • Humans
  • Mass Gatherings
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • SARS-CoV-2* / isolation & purification
  • Self-Testing*
  • Zambia / epidemiology

Grants and funding

This study was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Government of Switzerland (through the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation [SDC]). CCJ reports funding from the Unitaid-WHO HIV and Co-Infections/Co-Morbidities Enabler Grant (HIV & COIMS).