Pandemic risk characterisation of zoonotic influenza A viruses using the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA)

Reina Yamaji; Wenqing Zhang; Akiko Kamata; Cornelia Adlhoch; David E Swayne; Dmitriy Pereyaslov; Dayan Wang; Gabriele Neumann; Gounalan Pavade; Ian G Barr; Malik Peiris; Richard J Webby; Ron A M Fouchier; Sophie Von Dobschütz; Thomas Fabrizio; Yuelong Shu; Magdi Samaan

doi:10.1016/j.lanmic.2024.100973

Pandemic risk characterisation of zoonotic influenza A viruses using the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA)

Lancet Microbe. 2024 Oct 10:100973. doi: 10.1016/j.lanmic.2024.100973. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Reina Yamaji¹, Wenqing Zhang¹, Akiko Kamata², Cornelia Adlhoch³, David E Swayne⁴, Dmitriy Pereyaslov¹, Dayan Wang⁵, Gabriele Neumann⁶, Gounalan Pavade⁷, Ian G Barr⁸, Malik Peiris⁹, Richard J Webby¹⁰, Ron A M Fouchier¹¹, Sophie Von Dobschütz¹², Thomas Fabrizio¹⁰, Yuelong Shu¹³, Magdi Samaan¹⁴

Affiliations

¹ Global Influenza Programme, Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention, WHO Emergency Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
² The Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), Rome, Italy.
³ European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.
⁴ Birdflu Veterinarian, Watkinsville, GA, USA.
⁵ National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Changping District, Beijing, China.
⁶ Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.
⁷ World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris, France.
⁸ WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
⁹ School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
¹⁰ Department of Infectious Diseases, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN, USA.
¹¹ Department of Viroscience, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
¹² The Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), Rome, Italy; Emerging Diseases and Zoonoses Unit, Department for Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
¹³ Institute of Pathogen Biology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
¹⁴ Global Influenza Programme, Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention, WHO Emergency Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. Electronic address: [email protected].

PMID: 39396528
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanmic.2024.100973

Abstract

A systematic risk assessment approach is essential for evaluating the relative risk of influenza A viruses (IAVs) with pandemic potential. To achieve this, the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA) was developed under the Global Influenza Programme of WHO. Since its release in 2016 and update in 2020, TIPRA has been used to assess the pandemic risk of 11 zoonotic IAVs across ten evaluation rounds. Notably, A(H7N9), A(H9N2), and A(H5) clade 2.3.4.4 viruses were re-evaluated owing to changes in epidemiological characteristics or virus properties. A(H7N9) viruses had the highest relative risk at the time of assessment, highlighting the importance of continuous monitoring and reassessment as changes in epidemiological trends within animal and human populations can alter risk profiles. The knowledge gaps identified throughout the ten risk assessments should help to guide the efficient use of resources for future research, including surveillance. The TIPRA tool reflects the One Health approach and has proven crucial for closely monitoring virus dynamics in both human and non-human populations to enhance preparedness for potential IAV pandemics.

Publication types

Review

Grants and funding

001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International