Impact of net zero policy scenarios on air pollution inequalities in England and Wales

Background: The UK is committed to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The suite of policies needed to reach net zero will lead to improvements in air quality and, consequently, could lessen air pollution inequalities. We assessed air pollution inequalities across different sociodemographic groups in England and Wales and explored how these might be differentially impacted by future air pollution projections in 2030 and 2040 under net zero policies.

Methods: We employed a geodemographic classification approach to categorise neighbourhoods into five distinct clusters based on 2021 UK Census sociodemographic variables. We modelled fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations for the year 2019, and predicted concentrations in 2030 and 2040. We compared a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and two policy pathways to achieve net zero currently considered by the UK government. We aggregated air pollution concentrations to the neighbourhood level and assessed differential neighbourhood-level concentrations across the geodemographic groups using descriptive statistics and box plots.

Results: The Urban Central Professionals group experienced 14 µg/m³ higher average NO₂ concentrations compared with the Rural Elderly group in 2019. Despite substantial improvements to air quality in 2030 and 2040 of up to 6.3 µg/m³ for NO₂ based on BAU, and further reductions of up to 2.4 µg/m³ NO₂ under net zero policies, the overall pattern of inequality persists, but is predicted to be less pronounced.

Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate the effectiveness of targeted policies and innovations in reducing both air quality and greenhouse gas emissions and in bridging the environmental inequality gap. Our findings are essential to develop targeted communication campaigns to secure acceptance and willingness across the sociodemographic spectrum to support the significant behavioural changes needed to achieve net zero, by highlighting the wider co-benefits to the environment and health of such policies.