Association Between Changes in Central Blood Pressure and Peripheral Blood Pressure With New-Onset Hypertension in a Chinese Community-Based Population

Spot central and peripheral blood pressure are predictors for future hypertension, but the associations between central or peripheral systolic blood pressure (SBP) changes and new-onset hypertension are unclear. Annual changes in central and peripheral SBP over a mean interval of 2.36 years were calculated for 815 Chinese community residents without cardiovascular disease and hypertension at the first two visits, with the formula: ([2^nd SBP-1^st SBP]/1^st SBP) × 100%/time interval (years). The independent and joint associations of these SBP changes with new-onset hypertension at the third visit were assessed with multivariable logistic regression models. During a mean follow-up interval of 4.37 years since the second visit, 171 new cases of hypertension were observed. Central and peripheral SBP changes were significantly associated with new-onset hypertension (central SBP change rate: odds ratio [OR]: 1.19 [95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.13, 1.26]; peripheral SBP change rate: OR: 1.25 [95% CI 1.17, 1.33]), even after adjusting for each other. Compared to the group with neither SBP increased, the group with both SBPs increased showed a significantly higher risk of new-onset hypertension (OR: 4.52 [95% CI 2.54, 8.04]). The model including both SBP changes had a higher area under the curve (AUC) for predicting hypertension in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses than those with either change alone. Central and peripheral SBP changes are independently and jointly associated with new-onset hypertension. It is recommended to regularly monitor both central and peripheral blood pressures.