Examining the Long-Term Prognostic Significance of Serum sST2: Influence of Myocardial Infarction History and Subgroup Level Standardization

Aim: In this study, the predictive value of soluble growth stimulation expressed gene 2 protein (sST2) for long-term clinical outcomes in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) is assessed. In addition, the influence of a history of myocardial infarction on the levels of sST2 in patients with HF, as well as its impact on outcome events, is explored. We also aim to establish a specific standard for sST2 levels in this subgroup.

Methods: We conducted an ambispective cohort study involving hospitalized patients with AHF, measuring their sST2 levels and following their progress over three years. The primary endpoint was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), encompassing heart failure readmission and all-cause mortality over three years. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the prognostic significance of sST2 levels, along with a subgroup analysis using propensity score matching (PSM) to adjust for confounding variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was utilized to determine the optimal sST2 threshold using Youden's J statistics, and a sensitivity analysis included Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

Results: The study included 149 patients with a median age of 68 years, of whom 57% were male. Both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses confirmed sST2 as an independent predictor of MACEs. Post-PSM analysis, 124 samples were grouped by MI history ROC curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0.726 for predicting MACEs in patients with MI, demonstrating a significant predictive value for sST2 levels above 34 ng/mL, which correlated with increased readmission and mortality rates. In contrast, sST2 levels in patients without MI history showed no significant predictive relevance.

Conclusion: sST2 has significant long-term predictive value for clinical outcomes in patients with AHF, particularly for those with a prior MI history, indicating a need for heightened clinical attention and thorough follow-up to mitigate long-term adverse cardiovascular outcomes.