Understanding the oscillations of an epidemic due to vaccine hesitancy

Math Biosci Eng. 2024 Aug 9;21(8):6829-6846. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2024299.

Abstract

Vaccine hesitancy threatens to reverse the progress in tackling vaccine-preventable diseases. We used an $ SIS $ model with a game theory model for vaccination and parameters from the COVID-19 pandemic to study how vaccine hesitancy impacts epidemic dynamics. The system showed three asymptotic behaviors: total rejection of vaccinations, complete acceptance, and oscillations. With increasing fear of infection, stable endemic states become periodic oscillations. Our results suggest that managing fear of infection relative to vaccination is vital to successful mass vaccinations.

Keywords: COVID-19; SIS; SIV; oscillations; vaccination game theory; vaccine hesitancy.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 Vaccines* / administration & dosage
  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / prevention & control
  • Computer Simulation
  • Epidemics / prevention & control
  • Fear
  • Game Theory*
  • Humans
  • Mass Vaccination / psychology
  • Mass Vaccination / statistics & numerical data
  • Pandemics* / prevention & control
  • SARS-CoV-2*
  • Vaccination Hesitancy* / psychology
  • Vaccination Hesitancy* / statistics & numerical data
  • Vaccination* / psychology

Substances

  • COVID-19 Vaccines