Comprehensive phylogenomic analysis of Zika virus: Insights into its origin, past evolutionary dynamics, and global spread

Background: Zika virus (ZIKV), a Flaviviridae family member, has been linked to severe neurological disorders. Despite detailed studies on recent outbreaks, the early evolutionary history of ZIKV remains partially unclear. This study elucidates ZIKV origin and evolutionary dynamics, focusing on recombination events, early lineage diversification, and virus spread across continents.

Methods: We assessed recombination using multiple methods. We conducted Bayesian phylogenetic analyses to understand the evolutionary relationships and timing of key diversification events. Model selection was carried out to determine the most appropriate evolutionary model for our dataset.

Results: Our phylogenies revealed recent recombination between Singaporean and African lineages, indicating the co-circulation of diverse lineages during outbreaks. Thailand was identified as a crucial hub in the spread across Asia. The phylogenetic analysis suggests that the ZIKV lineage dates back to the eleventh century, with the first significant diversification occurring in the nineteenth century. The timing of the re-introduction of the Asian lineage into Africa and the delay between probable introduction and outbreak onset were also determined.

Conclusions: This study provides novel insights into ZIKV's origin and early evolutionary dynamics, highlighting Thailand's role in the spread of the virus in Asia and recent recombination events between distant lineages. These findings emphasize the need for continuous surveillance and a better understanding of ZIKV biology to forecast and mitigate future outbreaks.