Assessing the validity of METS-IR for predicting the future onset of diabetes: an analysis using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics

Background: The Metabolic Insulin Resistance Score (METS-IR) is a non-invasive proxy for insulin resistance (IR) that has been newly developed in recent years and has been shown to be associated with diabetes risk. Our aim was to assess the predictive value of METS-IR for the future development of diabetes and its temporal differences in people of different sex, age, and body mass index (BMI).

Methods: The current study included 15,453 baseline non-diabetic subjects in the NAGALA cohort and then grouped according to the World Health Organization's (WHO) recommended criteria for age and BMI. Multivariate Cox regression and time-dependent receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curves were used to analyze the value of METS-IR in assessing and predicting the risk of diabetes in people of different sexes, ages, and BMIs.

Results: 373 individuals developed diabetes during the observation period. By multivariate COX regression analysis, the development of future diabetes was significantly associated with increased METS-IR, and this positive association was stronger in women than in men and in individuals < 45 years than in individuals ≥ 45 years; while no significant differences were observed between non-obese and overweight/obesity individuals. Using time-dependent ROC analysis we also assessed the predictive value of METS-IR for future diabetes at a total of 11-time points between 2 and 12 years. The results showed that METS-IR had a higher predictive value for the future development of diabetes in women or individuals < 45 years of age compared to men or individuals ≥ 45 years of age for almost the entire follow-up period. Furthermore, across different BMI categories, we also found that in the short term (3-5 years), METS-IR had a higher predictive value for the development of diabetes in individuals with overweight/obesity, while in the medium to long term (6-12 years), METS-IR was more accurate in predicting the development of diabetes in non-obese individuals.

Conclusions: Our study showed that METS-IR was independently associated with the development of future diabetes in a non-diabetic population. METS-IR was a good predictor of diabetes, especially for women and individuals < 45 years old for predicting the future risk of developing diabetes at all times.