Analysis of the treatment efficacy and prognostic factors of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors for advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer: a multicenter, retrospective clinical study

Introduction: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have transformed advanced gastric cancer treatment, yet patient responses vary, highlighting the need for effective biomarkers. Common markers, such as programmed cell death ligand-1 (PD-L1), microsatellite instability/mismatch repair (MSI/MMR), tumor mutational burden, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, and Epstein-Barr virus, face sampling challenges and high costs. This study seeks practical, minimally invasive biomarkers to enhance patient selection and improve outcomes.

Methods: This multicenter retrospective study analyzed 617 patients with advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer treated with programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1)/PD-L1 inhibitors from January 2019 to March 2023. Clinical data and peripheral blood marker data were collected before and after treatment. The primary endpoints were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS); the secondary endpoints included the objective response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-Cox and LASSO logistic regression analyses identified independent factors for OS, PFS, and ORR. Predictive nomograms were validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, areas under the curve (AUCs), C-indices, and calibration curves, with clinical utility assessed via decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

Results: OS-related factors included treatment line, T stage, ascites, pretreatment indirect bilirubin (pre-IBIL), posttreatment CA125, CA199, CA724, and the PLR. PFS-related factors included treatment lines, T stage, metastatic sites, pre-IBIL, posttreatment globulin (GLOB), CA125, and CA199 changes. ORR-related factors included treatment line, T stage, N stage, liver metastasis, pretreatment red cell distribution width-to-platelet ratio (RPR), CA125, and CA724 changes. The nomograms showed strong predictive performance and clinical utility.

Conclusions: Early treatment, lower T stage, the absence of ascites, and lower pre-IBIL, post-CA125, CA199, CA724, and PLR correlate with better OS. Factors for improved PFS include early treatment, lower T stage, fewer metastatic sites, and lower pre-IBIL, post-GLOB, and post-CA125 levels. Nomogram models can help identify patients who may benefit from immunotherapy, providing valuable clinical guidance.