Evaluating urban water ecological carrying capacity and obstacles to its achievement using an integrated DPSIR-based approach: A case study of 16 cities in Hubei Province, China

Urban Water Ecological Carrying Capacity (UWECC) is an important dimension for measuring the health of urban water ecosystems and is crucial for promoting the coordination between economic and social development and ecological protection. This study introduces a novel UWECC assessment method by coupling criterion layers with driving indicators and is the first to examine the impact of COVID-19 on UWECC. Taking the 16 prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province, China, as an example, first a comprehensive evaluation index system for UWECC was constructed based on the DPSIR framework. Then, an improved CRITIC-entropy weight method was used to dynamically evaluate the UWECC from 2010 to 2020. Finally, a combination of the coupling coordination degree (CCD) and obstacle diagnosis models was used to explore the main influencing indicators on the criterion layer and indicator level, and to also consider the impact of the onset of COVID-19. The main results were as follows: (1) The UWECC in Hubei Province in 2010-2020 had an overall upward trend. Specifically, it showed a fluctuating rise from 2010 to 2017, a short decline from 2018 to 2019, and a sharp rise in 2020. (2) The CCD of each city is significantly positively correlated with the UWECC, and the CCD among the criterion layers is an important indicator affecting the evaluation of UWECC. On average, the five major obstacles to improving UWECC are the cumulative control area of soil erosion, ecological index, integrated production capacity, GDP per capita, and annual precipitation. (3) The occurrence of COVID-19 not only had a significant impact on the economic development, public health, and social stability of Hubei Province but was also accompanied by substantial changes to the urban ecological environment and annual rainfall. These changes appear to be associated with the substantial enhancement of UWECC in 2020.