Predictors of Early Mortality After Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury in South Africa

Study design: Retrospective cohort study.

Objectives: To identify predictors for early mortality following traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI), as recognition of factors associated with early mortality is essential for public resource allocation and optimized acute care.

Methods: Retrospective Analysis of SCI patients admitted to the acute SCI ward from 2003 to 2022 was performed. Days elapsing from the date of injury to date of death established the survival time. Early mortality was defined as survival time ≤ 365 days. Multivariable logistic regression was used in modeling of early death following TSCI with age, gender, neurologic deficit, type of neurologic injury, ventilation status, and count of complications as covariates.

Results: Simple logistic regression indicated a significant association of early mortality with the number of complications (P < .0001), neurological deficit (P < .0001), complete neurological injury (P < .0001), ventilation status (P < .0001), and age group (P < .0003). After adjusting for other covariates, complete neurological injury (OR: 1.75, P < .0001), ventilation (OR: 2.80, P < .0001), and Age group (over 60 OR: 17.71, P < .0001) were significantly associated with early mortality. The multivariable model showed a good overall fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .315; AUC 0.85).

Conclusions: Predictors of early mortality after TSCI are high complete spinal cord injury, age, number of complications, and the need for ventilation. Identification of high-risk patients is crucial to rationalize and improve acute care to potentially reduce mortality rates.