We Are on the Verge of Breakthrough Cures for Type 1 Diabetes, but Who Are the 2 Million Americans Who Have It?

Background: Two million Americans have type 1 diabetes (T1DM). Innovative treatments have standardized insulin delivery and improved outcomes for patients, but patients' access to such technologies depends on social determinants of health, including insurance coverage, proper diagnosis, and appropriate patient supports. Prior estimates of US prevalence, incidence, and patient characteristics have relied on data from select regions and younger ages and miss important determinants. Objectives: This study sought to use large, nationally representative healthcare claims data sets to holistically estimate the size of the current US population with T1DM and investigate geographic nuances in prevalence and incidence, patient demographics, insurance coverage, and device use. This work also aimed to project T1DM population growth over the next 10 years. Methods: We used administrative claims from 4 sources to identify prevalent and incident T1DM patients in the US, as well as various demographic and insurance characteristics of the patient population. We combined this data with information from national population growth projections and literature to construct an actuarial model to project growth of the T1DM population based on current trends and scenarios for 2024, 2029, and 2033. Results: We estimated 2.07 million T1DM patients nationally across all insurance coverages in our 2024 baseline model year: 1.79 million adults (≥20 years) and 0.28 million children. This represents a US T1DM prevalence rate of 617 per 100 000 and an incidence rate of 0.016%. By 2033, we project the US population with T1DM will grow by about 10%, reaching approximately 2.29 million patients. Discussion: Our results showed important differences in T1DM prevalence and incidence across regions, payers, and ethnic groups. This suggests studies based on more geographically concentrated data may miss important variation in prevalence and incidence across regions. It also indicates T1DM prevalence tends to vary by income, consistent with several international studies. Conclusions: Accurate projections of T1DM population growth are critical to ensure appropriate healthcare coverage and reimbursement for treatments. Our work supports future policy and research efforts with 2024, 2029, and 2033 projections of demographics and insurance coverage for people with T1DM.