SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in US wastewater: Leading indicators and data variability analysis in 2023-2024

PLoS One. 2024 Nov 18;19(11):e0313927. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0313927. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Wastewater-Based Epidemiology (WBE) has become a powerful tool for assessing disease occurrence in communities. This study investigates the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in the United States during 2023-2024 using wastewater data from 189 wastewater treatment plants in 40 states and the District of Columbia. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and pepper-mild mottle virus normalized SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration data were compared with COVID-19 hospitalization admission data at both national and state levels. We further investigate temporal features in wastewater viral RNA abundance, with peak timing and cross-correlation lag analyses indicating that wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations precede hospitalization admissions by 2 to 12 days. Lastly, we demonstrate that wastewater treatment plant size has a significant effect on the variability of measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations. This study highlights the effectiveness of WBE as a non-invasive, timely and resource-efficient disease monitoring strategy, especially in the context of declining COVID-19 clinical reporting.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / virology
  • Hospitalization / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • RNA, Viral* / genetics
  • SARS-CoV-2* / genetics
  • SARS-CoV-2* / isolation & purification
  • Tobamovirus / genetics
  • Tobamovirus / isolation & purification
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Wastewater* / virology
  • Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring

Substances

  • Wastewater
  • RNA, Viral

Supplementary concepts

  • Pepper mild mottle virus

Grants and funding

The study was supported by a gift from The Sergey Brin Family Foundation to ABB. H. Schenk received funding from the Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation. There was no additional external funding received for this study. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preperation of the manuscript.