Machine Learning Identifies Clinically Distinct Phenotypes in Patients with Aortic Regurgitation

Background: Aortic regurgitation (AR) is a prevalent valve disease with a long latent period to symptoms. Recent data has suggested the role of novel markers of myocardial overload in assessing onset of decompensation.

Method: We sought to evaluate the role of unsupervised cluster analyses in identifying different clinical clusters, including clinical status, and a large number of echocardiographic variables including left ventricular (LV) volumes, and their association with mortality. Patients with ≥moderate-severe chronic AR identified using echocardiography at Mayo Clinic, Rochester were retrospectively analyzed. Primary outcome was all-cause mortality censored at aortic valve surgery/last follow-up. Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) with K-means algorithm was used to cluster patients using clinical and, echocardiographic variables at the time of presentation. Missing data were imputed with the Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) method. A supervised approach trained on the training set was used to find cluster membership in a hold-out validation set. Log-rank tests were used to assess differences in mortality rates between the clusters, both in the training and validation sets.

Results: Three distinct clusters were identified among 1100 patients (log-rank P for survival <0.001). Cluster 1 (n=337), which included younger males with severe AR but fewer symptoms, showed the best survival, 75.6% (69.5, 82.3). Cluster 2 (n=235), older and more females with elevated filling pressures, showed intermediate survival of 64.2 % (56.8, 72.5). Cluster 3 (n=253), characterized by severe symptomatic AR, demonstrated the lowest survival of 45.3 % (34.4, 59.8) at 5 years. Similar clusters were formed in the internal validation cohort.

Conclusion: Distinct clusters with variable echocardiographic features and mortality differences exist within patients with chronic ≥moderate-severe AR. Recognizing these clusters can refine individual risk stratification and clinical decision-making after verification in future prospective studies.