The epidemiological benefit of pyrethroid-pyrrole insecticide treated nets against malaria: an individual-based malaria transmission dynamics modelling study

Background: Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) are the most important malaria prevention tool in Africa but the rise of pyrethroid resistance in mosquitoes is likely impeding control. WHO has recommended a novel pyrethroid-pyrrole ITN following evidence of epidemiological benefit in two cluster-randomised, controlled trials (CRTs). It remains unclear how effective more costly pyrethroid-pyrrole ITNs are compared with other tools, or whether they should be deployed when budgets are limited. We aimed to compare the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of the mass distribution of pyrethroid-pyrrole ITNs relative to other ITNs over 3 years in different African settings.

Methods: In this individual-based malaria transmission dynamics modelling study we characterise the entomological impact of ITNs using data from a systematic review of experimental hut trials from across Africa. This African entomological data was used to inform an individual-based malaria transmission dynamics model, which was validated against CRT results from Benin and Tanzania. The full impact of new ITNs was quantified for trial sites and simulation was used to project impact in different settings which were included within an accessible interface (the Malaria Intervention Tool) to support National Malaria Programmes to explore how vector control tools and budgets could be allocated across regions to avert the most cases.

Findings: The model projects that distributing pyrethroid-pyrrole ITNs averted 65% (95% credible interval 48-74) of cases over 3 years in Tanzania, and 75% (28-93) in Benin. The model indicates that trials might have underestimated the benefits of switching ITNs by 12-16% over 3 years because participants stopped using trial-allocated nets. In moderate endemicity non-trial settings, pyrethroid-pyrrole ITNs are projected to reduce malaria prevalence by 25-60% and switching from pyrethroid-only ITNs is probably highly cost-effective in most locations given current prices, averting an additional 10-30% of cases.

Interpretation: The benefit of pyrethroid-pyrrole ITNs varies by setting but is generally the most cost-effective indoor vector control intervention in Africa. National Malaria Programmes can strategise deployment to maximise impact. Entomological data could broadly predict epidemiological impact, although there are some inconsistencies, illustrating the challenge in capturing the dynamics across diverse settings.

Funding: Unitaid, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.