Global burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease in older adults (60-89 years old), 1990-2019: Systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Understanding the global burden and risk factors of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease (NRVHD) in older adults is important for effective disease control. We wanted to analyze the prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, mortality rate, and risk factors of NRVHD in older adults aged 60-89 years.

Methods: Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 was used as the data source. Age standardized incidence rate, prevalence, DALY rate, and mortality rate of NRVHD among older adults aged 60-89 years from 1990 to 2019. We analyzed different age groups, genders, regions, sociodemographic index (SDI) across 204 countries/territories. Proportional DALY and mortality attributable to risk factors were calculated.

Results: Globally, age-standardized DALY rate (per 100,000 population) for NRVHD in older adults decreased significantly from 44.46 (95 % confidence interval 39.95 to 49.18) in 1990 to 35.94 (32.32 to 40.19) in 2019 with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of -0.19 % (-0.24 % to -0.14 %), and the mortality rate also decreased significantly from 2.48 (2.21 to 2.64) to 2.25 (1.89 to 2.47) with an AAPC of -0.09 % (-0.16 % to -0.03 %,). However, the age-standardized incidence rate (per 100,000 population) increased from 18.37 (17.41 to 19.35) in 1990 to 19.77(18.62 to 20.95) in 2019 with an AAPC of 0.08 % (0.05 % to 0.10 %), and the age-standardized prevalence rate significantly increased from 391.40 (372.71 to 411.20) to 399.50 (378.31 to 420.75) with an AAPC of 0.02 % (0.00 % to 0.05 %). At the regional level, the greatest burden of NRVHD was seen in parts of high-income North America. At the national level, the highest age standardized incidence rate, age standardized DALY rate, and age standardized mortality rate in 2019 were all from Niger, Philippines and Belarus, making it the region with the greatest burden of NRVHD. The age standardized incidence and DALY rate were higher in women 20.83 (19.68 to 22.02) than in men 18.64 (17.39 to 19.88) globally, while the mortality rate was similar in different genders. The differences between men and women in incidence, DALY and mortality were mainly found in age groups of 80-84 and 85-89 years. A significant negative association was found between estimated annual percentage change (EAPCs) and age standardized rate (q=-0.19, p = 0.00). A significant positive relation was detected between EAPCs and human development index (q = 0.17, p = 0.02). The main attributable risk factor for DALY was high body mass index in all regions by SDI.

Conclusion: There is a substantial global burden of NRVHD in older adults in 2019, which is varied by age, gender, SDI and region. NRVHD in older people should be paid attention to. Risk factors described here should provide more evidence and clues for disease prevention in the future.