Understanding current trends and incidence projections of prostate cancer in India: A comprehensive analysis of national and regional data from the global burden of disease study (1990 -2021)

Vijay Kumar; Quazi Syed Zahiruddin; Diptismita Jena; Suhas Ballal; Sanjay Kumar; Mahakshit Bhat; Shilpa Sharma; M Ravi Kumar; Sarvesh Rustagi; Abhay M Gaidhane; Lara Jain; Sanjit Sah; Muhammed Shabil

doi:10.1016/j.canep.2024.102719

Understanding current trends and incidence projections of prostate cancer in India: A comprehensive analysis of national and regional data from the global burden of disease study (1990 -2021)

Cancer Epidemiol. 2024 Dec 4:94:102719. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2024.102719. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Vijay Kumar¹, Quazi Syed Zahiruddin², Diptismita Jena³, Suhas Ballal⁴, Sanjay Kumar⁵, Mahakshit Bhat⁶, Shilpa Sharma⁷, M Ravi Kumar⁸, Sarvesh Rustagi⁹, Abhay M Gaidhane¹⁰, Lara Jain¹¹, Sanjit Sah¹², Muhammed Shabil¹³

Affiliations

¹ Global Center for Evidence Synthesis, Chandigarh, India. Electronic address: [email protected].
² South Asia Infant Feeding Research Network, Division of Evidence Synthesis, Global Consortium of Public Health and Research, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education, Wardha, India. Electronic address: [email protected].
³ Center for Global Health Research, Saveetha Medical College and Hospital, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences, Saveetha University, Chennai, India. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁴ Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, School of Sciences, JAIN (Deemed to be University), Bangalore, Karnataka, India. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁵ Department of Allied Healthcare and Sciences, Vivekananda Global University, Jaipur, Rajasthan 303012, India. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁶ Department of Medicine, National Institute of Medical Sciences, NIMS University Rajasthan, Jaipur, India. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁷ Chandigarh Pharmacy College, Chandigarh Group of Colleges-Jhanjeri, Mohali, Punjab 140307, India. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁸ Department of Chemistry, Raghu Engineering College, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh 531162, India. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁹ School of Applied and Life Sciences, Uttaranchal University, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India. Electronic address: [email protected].
¹⁰ Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, and Global Health Academy, School of Epidemiology and Public Health. Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education, Wardha, India. Electronic address: [email protected].
¹¹ Department of Dentistry, Graphic Era (Deemed to be University), Clement Town, Dehradun 248002, India. Electronic address: [email protected].
¹² SR Sanjeevani Hospital, Kalyanpur, Siraha 56517, Nepal; Department of Paediatrics, Dr. D. Y. Patil Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre, Dr. D. Y. Patil Vidyapeeth, Pune, Maharashtra 411018, India; Department of Public Health Dentistry, Dr. D.Y. Patil Dental College and Hospital, Dr. D.Y. Patil Vidyapeeth, Pune, Maharashtra 411018, India. Electronic address: [email protected].
¹³ University Center for Research and Development, Chandigarh University, Mohali, Punjab 140413, India; Medical Laboratories Techniques Department, AL-Mustaqbal University, Hillah, Babil 51001, Iraq. Electronic address: [email protected].

PMID: 39637699
DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2024.102719

Abstract

Background: The study aims to explore the burden and trends of prostate cancer (PC) in India at the state level from 1990 to 2021, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.

Methods: The health metrics including age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR), prevalence rates (ASPR), disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), and mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 for PC were analysed across Indian states and union territories. Join point regression analysis was employed to identify significant changes in these metrics over time. Projection of ASIR were done using auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

Results: The age-wise distribution of PC showed increased in ASIR, ASPR, ASDR, ASMR among older age, majorly in the 75-79 years age group. From 1990-2021, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR increased by 157 %, 278 %, 76 % and 58 % respectively. Projections indicate a further rise in ASIR to 9.15 per 100,000 by 2031. The join point analysis showed the highest annual percentage change (APC) between 1992 and 1995 period in all health metrics. Despite Gujarat state showing the highest total percentage change in all health metrics when considering regional variations, Delhi and Kerala still remain the highest overall.

Conclusion: The study emphasises the growing burden of PC in India, highlighting the need for improved diagnostic practices, localized screening guidelines, and targeted public health interventions.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Global burden of disease; India; Prostate cancer; Prostate-specific antigen.