Analysis of the effect of the quantity of inflow into Ebinur Lake on its ecological security

The ecological security of lakes in arid areas is crucial for the sustainable development of regional society and the economy. The threat of dry lake-bottom dust and degradation of vegetation around lakes has become increasingly significant. This study proposes the maintenance of an optimal water surface area to ensure the ecological safety goals of Ebinur Lake. The study also conducts a scenario analysis of the amount of water entering the lake. Utilizing a Systeme Hydrologique Europeen (MIKE SHE) watershed model with four different inflow scenarios, the study simulated the Ebinur Lake's area changes under various water replenishment scenarios. Replenishment scenarios that meet the ecological security goals were selected for this study. The results indicate that maintaining a lake surface area of 710 km² or more during warm season can prevent wind and sand fixation, while a lake surface area of no less than 500 km² during dry season may help maintain ecological security. To ensure ecological security during dry years, the Kuitun River should annually replenish the Ebinur Lake with 1.75 × 10⁸ m³. These findings provide valuable insights a practical tool for the ecological restoration and management of lakes in arid areas.