The introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 disrupted circulation of many respiratory pathogens and eventually caused large, delayed outbreaks, owing to the build up of the susceptible pool during the intervention period. In contrast to other common respiratory pathogens that re-emerged soon after the NPIs were lifted, longer delays (> 3 years) in the outbreaks of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (Mp), a bacterium commonly responsible for respiratory infections and pneumonia, have been reported in Europe and Asia. As Mp cases are continuing to increase in the US, predicting the size of an imminent outbreak is timely for public health agencies and decision makers. Here, we use simple mathematical models to provide robust predictions about a large Mp outbreak ongoing in the US. Our model further illustrates that NPIs and waning immunity are important factors in driving long delays in epidemic resurgence.
Keywords: Bayesian inference; Mathematical model; Mycoplasma pneumoniae; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Outbreak prediction.
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